U.S. tariffs could shrink global trade by 3%, says U.N. economist 

Global trade could shrink by 3% with shifts to India, Canada, and Brazil due to U.S. tariffs, UN economist warns.

Global trade could shrink by three per cent and exports could see a shift from markets such as the U.S. and China to India, Canada and Brazil due to tariffs imposed by the U.S., a top United Nations (UN) economist has said.

U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a massive tariff plan last week. The White House later announced a 90-day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” for most countries except China, which in turn decided to impose 125% tariffs on U.S. imports.

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“Global trade could shrink by 3%, with significant long-term shifts in trade patterns and economic integration,” International Trade Centre Executive Director Pamela Coke-Hamilton said in Geneva on Friday (April 11, 2025).

"For example, exports from Mexico—which have been highly impacted—are shifting from markets such as the U.S., China, Europe and even other Latin American countries, with modest gains instead in Canada and Brazil, and to a lesser extent, India,” she said.

Similarly, Vietnamese exports are redirecting away from the U.S., Mexico and China, while increasing substantially towards Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets, the EU, Korea and others, she said.

Citing the example of apparel, Coke-Hamilton said that textiles is a top industry in terms of economic activity and employment for developing countries.