U.S. intel community fears increased India-Pakistan, India-China tension and conflict

India has maintained that terrorism and talks cannot go together and Islamabad should provide a conducive atmosphere for the resumption of dialogue

The American intelligence community has told lawmakers that it apprehends increased tension between India and Pakistan and India and China with the possibility of a conflict between them.

It also noted that under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to “perceived or real” provocations from Pakistan.

This evaluation on March 8 forms part of the annual threat assessment of the U.S. intelligence community that was submitted to the U.S. Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence during a Congressional hearing.

Also read: Explained | The escalation on the India-China border

While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades, said the report.

The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to U.S. persons and interests and calls for U.S. intervention. Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly, it said.

Relations between China and India have virtually frozen ever since the eastern Ladakh military standoff between the two countries in May 2020.