Trump no longer leads in a state he carried twice, according to new Iowa Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47% to former President Donald Trump’s 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4 point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state, which has widely been rated as solidly in the GOP column during this year’s campaign.

Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47% to former President Donald Trump’s 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4 point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state, which has widely been rated as solidly in the GOP column during this year’s campaign. The findings suggest a shift toward Harris compared with the previous Iowa Poll, in September, which found a narrow edge for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters backed Trump to 43% for Harris. There has been little other high-quality polling in Iowa thus far this cycle with which to compare these findings. Iowa has a mixed record in the last four presidential elections, breaking for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, while Trump won it in 2016 and again in 2020. The new poll finds women in the state largely favor Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while men support Trump by a narrower margin, 52% to 38%. And independents in the state have flipped to support Harris, 46% to 39%; they have favored Trump in Iowa Polls released earlier this year. The survey also suggests that older voters are firmly in Harris’ camp, with 55% of likely voters ages 65 or older backing her to 36% for Trump, while likely voters younger than 35 split about evenly, 46% Harris to 44% Trump. More than 9 in 10 Iowa likely voters say their minds are made up in the new poll (91%), with 7% saying they could be persuaded and 2% that they haven’t yet chosen a candidate.