Trump comeback could see familiar faces re-emerge — and they may spell trouble for Canada

Canadians are watching the U.S. election campaign with more than their usual mix of trepidation and fascination, as it careens from a near-miss assassination attempt on one candidate to an unprecedented step-aside from the other.

Two-thirds of Canadians say a second Donald Trump term would be either '"bad news" or "terrible news" for Canada, according to a poll of 1,435 adults conducted by the Angus Reid Institute.

(The online poll was conducted over the four days following the shooting in Butler, Pa., and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

"It's not just about the Canada-U.S. relationship, although there's a significant amount of anxiety and pessimism around that," pollster Shachi Kurl told CBC News.

"There's also the prospects for what happens in the United States, what happens around Ukraine and U.S. support for Ukraine and the broader NATO relationship. Does that continue to hold together or does it come apart? [There are also] issues around the continuing fight on curbing greenhouse gas emissions."

A majority of respondents said a second Trump term would be negative for global stability (68%), U.S.-Canada relations (65%), the unity of the United States (67%), the fight against climate change (67%) and Canada's economy (60%).

"So across a number of domestic Canadian, U.S. and international issues, there is that sense of anxiety and unease," said Kurl.

"The word we used is dread, and it is palpable among Canadians."

Trump is no longer the unknown quantity he was in 2016, and Canadians have had experience with his high-pressure trade negotiating tactics which have included threats, the mixing of unrelated issues and the use of bogus economic data.

The people Trump would name to key posts will be critical to deciding how tough his administration would be for Canada — and some potential names are more concerning than others.

The Canadian government learned during the first Trump administration that there were individuals who could be counted on to tone down some of the wilder suggestions — like Trump's son-in-law and senior staffer Jared Kushner — while others seemed to stoke Trump's worst instincts.

Unfortunately for Canada, those who tried to moderate Trump's behaviour — people like former national security advisor H.R. McMaster, former secretary of state Rex Tillerson, former chief of staff John Kelly, defence secretary Mark Esper and former vice-president Mike Pence —  eventually fell out with Trump and won't be returning.

Instead, it's the firebrands who are on the recall list for 2025.

One cabinet member went so far in attacking Canada he got out ahead of his boss and had to apologize: Peter Navarro, director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.