Trudeau removes himself from the equation, but the math doesn't get much easier

On the day he finally conceded to the obvious, Justin Trudeau looked appropriately humbled. For maybe the first time, he looked older. And the affectation that often marked his public remarks seemed drained out of him.

"This country deserves a real choice in the next election and it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election," he said.

After months of slow-burning dissent and unease, "internal battles" had indeed made Trudeau's position nearly untenable. In the wake of Chrystia Freeland's bombshell, the Liberal Party's Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic MPs — accounting for more than 80 per cent of Trudeau's parliamentary caucus — had discussed matters and come to the conclusion that he needed to resign.

The only reason to wonder what Trudeau might do next was the fact that he hadn't already conceded defeat at any point in the previous six months. And the only real question is whether he should have done it sooner.

But in announcing his intention to step away now, he creates two challenges — one for himself and one for his successor.

Like every previous prime minister to resign between elections, Trudeau will remain prime minister until his party has chosen a new leader. But in this case that will mean Trudeau is still prime minister on Jan. 20 when Donald Trump is sworn in again as president of the United States. One way or another, the final chapter of Trudeau's time as prime minister will involve leading Canada's initial response to whatever comes in the first days or weeks of another Trump presidency.

It's impossible to predict with any certainty what that might entail, but it could very plausibly involve a move toward the tariffs that Trump has threatened. 

The prorogation of Parliament won't necessarily handcuff Trudeau — the federal government can still implement retaliatory tariffs without parliamentary approval. But he may have to manage a response without whichever current cabinet ministers choose to enter the leadership race — either because they will step outside cabinet or because they will be otherwise occupied.

And the practical and political stakes are not small. Tariffs could have very real impacts on the Canadian economy. And Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, among others, will be quick to blame Trudeau and the Liberals for any tumult that ensues.

While Trudeau is managing that most important bilateral relationship, the Liberal Party will have to get on with the business of choosing his successor.

Officially, Parliament is not due to resume until March 24, but the Liberals will plausibly want or need to have a leader in place sometime before that. If a new leader wants to meet the House of Commons, he or she will want at least some time to get ready to do so — a throne speech will have to be drafted and a new cabinet will likely have to be chosen.

Political parties in Canada have more recently taken a rather leisurely approach to pick new leaders — the last Liberal leadership campaign was 10 months long, the last Conservative leadership election took eight months. By comparison, this Liberal leadership campaign will be a sprint — perhaps a little shorter or longer than two months.

The next leader could also be forced into a general election very shortly after he or she becomes prime minister. Circumstances can always change, but the opposition parties are currently still vowing to defeat the Liberal government at the earliest opportunity — and that opportunity could come within a couple days of Parliament reconvening. Before April Fool's Day, a new prime minister could be contesting an election.

(The new prime minister could also conceivably choose to skip a throne speech and proceed directly to an election.)