Travel isn’t dead. It’s just taking a vacation

CEOs of many of the biggest hotel and travel companies are coming off a bit like doomsayers these days with their warnings about the declining health of consumers and their waning appetite for traveling.

CEOs of many of the biggest hotel and travel companies are coming off a bit like doomsayers these days with their warnings about the declining health of consumers and their waning appetite for traveling. It’s getting a lot of attention after last month’s unexpectedly weak jobs report, which brought the US unemployment rate to the highest level since the fall of 2021. That’s put more people on high alert for signs of a recession. And typically, when there is one, travel is the first shoe to drop as people put off vacations to prioritize spending on everyday necessities. The good news is that the shoe is far from dropping — it’s just normalizing, moderating or softening — to quote the language that executives are using. “We are seeing shorter booking lead times globally and some signs of slowing demand from US guests,” Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky said on the company’s earnings call last week. “It’s not that consumers are not necessarily going to book that trip for Thanksgiving or Christmas, it just appears that they have not booked it yet,” Airbnb CFO Ellie Mertz later added on the call. This trend wasn’t playing out in recent years, they noted. Hilton’s CEO Chris Nassetta cautioned that coming out of the pandemic when consumers were flushed with savings, they now have “less disposable income and capacity to do anything, including travel,” he said on the company’s earnings call last week. Disney theme parks in the US are starting to experience material weakness with a drop in attendance last quarter that contributed to a decline in overall profits generated through parks and cruises. Disney’s CEO and CFO said in commentary published last week they expect consumer “demand moderation” to last for “a few quarters.”