Those byelection results suggest the next federal election is up for grabs

Last week, Abacus Data released a survey that suggested 81 per cent of Canadians would like to see a change in government at the federal level — but a substantial number of those who would prefer change are also uncomfortable with their options.

That survey might be a good place to start for those trying to understand Monday night's byelection results.

At least as they pertain to current standings in the House of Commons, the results were status quo — the Liberals retained two seats and the Conservatives kept two seats.

There are a number of reasons to believe the Liberals will have a difficult time holding on to power in the next general election. But Monday's byelections suggest that the outcome of that election is very far from a foregone conclusion.

If anything, it was the Liberals who had the best night.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre can take some comfort from the fact that Maxime Bernier couldn't manage more than 17 per cent in Portage-Lisgar — four points below what the People's Party leader received there in 2021.

If Poilievre's leadership has so far been aimed at bringing back Conservative voters who went to the People's Party in 2021, Portage-Lisgar offers some evidence that he is succeeding. The Conservatives might not have knocked Bernier out but they have at least knocked him down. And that might mean Poilievre now has to spend less time trying to appeal to Bernier's voters.

But the Conservatives may have done significant damage to themselves in the process. Over the weekend, the Liberals released video of the Conservative candidate in Portage-Lisgar, Branden Leslie, saying that he would have voted against legislation that banned conversion therapy.

WATCH: Federal leaders descend on Manitoba to campaign in byelection

The Conservatives also managed to hold on to the southwestern Ontario riding of Oxford, but only just. In the last four federal elections, the Conservatives have won that riding by an average of 25 points. On Monday, the Conservative candidate won it by seven points.

That might be chalked up to a messy nomination fight that split local Conservative supporters — Dave MacKenzie, the former Conservative MP for the riding, ended up endorsing the Liberal candidate. Monday's result could end up looking like a fluke of fleeting circumstances. But the fact the Conservative lead shrank by as much as it did might suggest there's more than internecine conflict to blame.

Either way, Oxford is a victory that Poilievre won't be able to brag about.

The Liberals can take their own comfort from the result in Montreal's Westmount riding, where their traditional vote largely held up despite grumbling about the government's changes to language laws. Potentially more interesting is the result in Winnipeg South Centre — less for the fact the Liberals won than for the margin of victory.

A few hours before the polls closed on Monday, former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole appeared on CBC's Power & Politics and went so far as to suggest that the Conservatives could also win Winnipeg South Centre.