This has been the worst wildfire season on record. What could 2024 have in store?

What a summer that was — the hottest ever recorded globally and the worst for wildfires in Canadian history.  

Dry conditions and warmer-than-usual temperatures helped fuel a long and unrelenting wildfire season that, to date, has burned more than 17,500,000 hectares, a 647 per cent increase over the 10-year average. Tens of thousands of residents were forced to flee, and six firefighters lost their lives battling the seemingly endless flames.

And the fires are still burning. 

The question is, are there lessons to be learned? Can the devastating wildfires of 2023 help prepare us for 2024? 

The whole year is on track to be one of the hottest on record. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 93.42 per cent chance it will take the top spot and a 99.5 per cent chance it will at least be in the top five.

To put it in perspective, all of the hottest years in NOAA's 143-year record have occurred since 2010, with the last nine years being the nine warmest on record.

Added to that, we're also in the midst of an El Niño — a cyclical warming in the Pacific Ocean that, coupled with the atmosphere, can cause a rise in the global temperature — and that means next summer could see more of the same.

"We already broke various global temperature records in the summer," said Greg Flato, a senior research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). "So my expectation is that we will break even more of those records next year."

What's more concerning however, is the increasing wildfire risk, particularly in British Columbia.

According to a recent study published in Nature Communications, four of the worst wildfire seasons in B.C. in the last 100 years have all occurred in the past seven years: 2017, 2018, 2021 and 2023. 

Added to that, Canada's Changing Climate Report, released in 2019. found that as the planet continues to warm Canada will experience more extremes, including drought and wildfire risks.

There is some comfort knowing that, even if 2023 stands as the hottest year on record globally, that doesn't mean next year will be another brutal wildfire season across Canada. You only have to look to 2021 to see how the west went from drought and fires to flooding.

"Seasonal forecasting is difficult. And forecasting for next year is difficult. But if next year is going to be a warmer year, I would expect that the dice will be loaded. Odds are, it'll be an above-average year [for fires]," said Mike Flannigan, a professor and the director of the Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science at the University of Alberta, and co-author of the Nature Communications paper.

But he's not expecting another "exceptional" year like 2023.