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The unlikely geopolitical winners from Russia's war in Ukraine

The unlikely geopolitical winners from Russia's war in Ukraine

CBC
Monday, November 14, 2022 07:42:10 AM UTC

Russia's invasion of Ukraine more than eight months ago has killed tens of thousands of civilians, left the country's power grid in ruins, displaced millions and exacerbated rising food and fuel prices.

But a small group of nations have found financial and geopolitical benefits in the ashes of the carnage, sanctions and economic dislocation.

Beneficiaries, in many cases, hold no responsibility for the violence; their gains are linked to geography, energy exports or unique diplomatic confluence.

For others, Russia's onslaught has been a chance to reassert their political clout and actively reap economic rewards. Countries and companies in the energy business have arguably been among the biggest beneficiaries, as the war has helped push oil and natural gas prices to near-record highs.

"Economies reliant on oil imports will see wider fiscal and trade deficits and more inflation pressure," economists with the International Monetary Fund noted earlier this year, "though some exporters such as those in the Middle East and Africa may benefit from higher prices."

From the yacht marinas of Dubai to diplomatic corridors in Ankara and the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, these are some beneficiaries as the war drags on into winter and the death toll climbs.

With its opulent hotels, marinas and desert golf courses, the United Arab Emirates has seen a big bump in Russian tourism and investment since the invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24.

Oligarchs who once moored their yachts on Italy's Amalfi Coast, partied in U.K. nightclubs or bought homes worth tens of millions of dollars in what critics dubbed "Londongrad" have relocated to the U.A.E. in the face of Western sanctions, according to analysts and property brokers.

Russians have become the top buyers of property in Dubai, the best known of the seven Emirates comprising the U.A.E., according to a report released last month from the property consultancy Betterhomes.

"Global conflicts," the Betterhomes report said, "have placed Russians at the top of our leaderboard as the number one non-resident buyers in Dubai."

With half of apartments in the city changing hands in all-cash deals, the consultancy found, Dubai offers a perfect laundering opportunity for wealthy buyers frozen out of traditional banks by Western sanctions.

As European and U.S. airlines suspended service to Russia, Emirates, one of the U.A.E.'s main carriers, continues operating 17 weekly flights between Moscow and Dubai.

The U.A.E., a major oil producer, has also benefited from a boost in energy prices due to the war. And its financial system, considered by Western critics to be a prime hub for money laundering, has allowed wealthy Russians to bypass European and U.S. sanctions.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has positioned himself as a mediator between Vladimir Putin's Russia and his erstwhile NATO allies in the West, reaping economic rewards in the process.

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