The terrorist threat posed by lone actors is 'difficult to detect,' says federal report

Violent extremists in Canada have the "intent and capability" to commit acts of terrorism, but detecting attacks by lone actors or small groups before they happen is "difficult," says an internal threat assessment conducted for the federal government last year.

The warning is found in a threat analysis prepared by the federal government's Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC) in the lead-up to last year's muted Canada Day celebrations.

At the time, the team — which works with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) to advise the federal government on terrorist threats — was worried that ideologically or religiously motivated extremists could seize the occasion of the national holiday to make a violent statement. 

While no known attacks happened last July 1, the analysis shines a light on the things the secretive agency looks for in advance of special events and the challenges it faces detecting would-be attackers. 

"An attack on a Canada Day 2021 celebration or legitimate public protest is most likely to be conducted by an inspired lone actor or small group using unsophisticated methods such as firearms, bladed weapons, vehicles or homemade explosives," ITAC concluded in its report, obtained by CBC News through an access to information request.

"Such attacks require little planning and are difficult to detect."

Jessica Davis is a former senior intelligence analyst with CSIS who now heads the consulting firm Insight Threat Intelligence. She said lone extremists can stay "completely off the radar" until it's too late. 

"Lots of people are radicalized. Lots of people hold extremist views. Only a very small minority actually take action on them," she said.

"So the challenge is really figuring out who in that big bucket is actually going to do something."

Barbara Perry is the director of the Centre on Hate, Bias and Extremism at Ontario Tech University. She said that while her team has identified about 300 right-wing hate groups in Canada, identifying those who pose a threat without necessarily belonging to any of those groups is nearly impossible.

"Many of these actors don't necessarily themselves engage. They're consuming but they're not producing necessarily online, so you're not going to see those red flags on their social media," she said.

"I don't think anyone has identified a sort of effective profile of who these folks are."

Back in 2018, CSIS launched a study of what spurs someone to engage in terrorist activity.

According to the agency's analysis, a radicalized person's journey from "mobilization" to violence — from intent to action — takes on average about 12 months.