The six, or nine, or 14 ridings that may determine the election

In a close election, every vote counts and every riding is important.

But when party campaign strategists look at a map of New Brunswick's 49 constituencies, they focus on some more than others.

For the Progressive Conservatives, under Blaine Higgs, to hold on to power — or for Susan Holt's Liberals to succeed in ousting them — a handful of key races are must-wins, many of them in the three largest cities.

The Green Party's clout in the next legislature is also in play.

The uncertainty in those pivotal ridings was evident among voters late last week in Rockwood Park in Saint John, a city with at least two pivotal ridings.

"I'm not entirely decided," Paddy Huizinga said.

"It used to be there wasn't that big of difference between one party and the other, and now there is." 

Madison Kelson said her riding of Saint John Harbour seemed "pretty close." 

Robert Collette said one candidate at his door "seemed like a nice fella, but because of the party leader, I told the gentlemen, 'If it wasn't for the party leader, I'd probably vote for you.'"

A party needs to win 25 seats to have a majority government.

Heading into the campaign, the PCs held — thanks to departures and defections — 25 seats, compared to 16 for the Liberals and three for the Greens. There was one independent MLA and four seats were vacant.

Here are six key ridings that, if they all go Liberal, could deprive the PCs of that majority.

This new riding includes part of the former Fredericton South, which Green Leader David Coon won in 2020, and part of Fredericton West-Hanwell, where there is a strong PC voting history.

Liberal Leader Susan Holt is on the ballot here and is not a shoe-in. Holt lost badly to Coon in Fredericton South in 2018, and in 2020 the PCs had more votes within the contours of the new riding.