The costs of China's 'no limits' support for Putin. Did Beijing get played with the Ukraine invasion?

With a smile and a practiced 'zdravstvuyte', Chinese President Xi Jinping looked genuinely happy to say hello to Vladimir Putin in Beijing last month. After all, the Russian president was the only major leader to travel to the opening of China's Winter Olympics in Beijing. Their embrace was deepening.

Indeed, the Chinese-Russian friendship was to have "no limits," the two declared in a joint statement on Feb. 4, as they pledged each other's support no matter what.

At the time, Xi may have enjoyed watching Moscow rattle Washington and other capitals with its military buildup on Ukraine's borders and Putin's implicit threat to invade. Russia's moves could be useful in exploiting rifts in the West.

There could also be lessons for China if it ever decided to invade Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing calls its own and has threatened to take by force.

But today, Xi may not be enjoying its "no limits" support for Russia as much.

The war has unified the West, giving NATO's military alliance new resolve. In China's own backyard, Japan's former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe raised what was once unthinkable — arguing Tokyo should consider inviting the U.S. to station nuclear weapons there "to protect Japan and the lives of its people in this reality."

The current government rejected the idea, but it was enough to prompt a warning from Beijing for Japan to "stop provoking trouble."

There is Western unity also in the unexpected severity of its economic sanctions on Moscow; sanctions which have forced some big Chinese banks to stop doing business with Russia and brought instability to world markets and the trade that China relies on. 

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And Moscow's been mostly isolated at the United Nations in New York, where China finds itself one of the very few voices defending Russia, in the company of international pariahs like North Korea, Belarus and Syria.

"China is starting to look a lot more uncomfortable" in this role, said UN observer Richard Gowan, with the NGO Crisis Group.

Like Russia, Beijing has refused to call the war in Ukraine an invasion, instead sticking to Putin's narrative that he's executing a "special military operation" that "will not conduct missile, air or artillery strikes on cities." That's been repeated at official briefings, and any public criticism on Chinese internet has been targeted by censors.  

When asked about China's traditional advocacy for every nation's "state sovereignty and territorial integrity," at the end of February, Chinese officials said the situation in Ukraine is "complex" and Russia's "legitimate security concerns" — its fears of NATO's eastward expansion — need to be considered.

Still, Gowan said Beijing has realized this is a "bad look" at the UN, and has toned down its support for Russia. It was initially expected to join Russia in vetoing the Security Council's condemnation of Moscow, but the position turned into an abstention after negotiations with the United States over wording.