The changing rules on onion export could impact election results: Data

Rise in onion prices impacts elections in India; Centre's export policy sparks protests and electoral implications in Maharashtra.

In India, the rise in the price of onions has reportedly been a factor that influenced the outcomes of some elections in the past. This time, it is not the price of onions which has the potential to have an electoral impact but the export policy of the Centre.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the average retail price for 1kg of onions in Mumbai and the quantum of onions (in tonnes) that arrived in the city’s markets, month-wise.

Table appears incomplete? Click to remove AMP mode

In December 2023, the Centre imposed a ban on the export of onions to stop surging local prices. Onion arrivals slumped in November-December 2023, leading to a demand-supply mismatch. This resulted in a surge in onion prices to over Rs. 60 per kg and led to the export ban. Many farmers in the onion-growing districts of Maharashtra, especially Nashik, protested on the streets, blocked a national highway at three spots, and disrupted auctions in wholesale markets.

Editorial | A sob story: On onion exports 

On April 25, 2024, in a surprise move, the Centre partially relaxed the indefinite ban on onion exports and allowed the “immediate” export of 2,000 tonnes of white onions, mostly grown in Gujarat. The State went to the polls 12 days later. This decision was criticised by the Opposition leaders and the onion farmers of Maharashtra.

On April 27, the Centre allowed the export of more than 99,000 tonnes of onions, mainly sourced from Maharashtra to six neighbouring countries. On May 4, the Centre lifted the ban on onion exports. It also imposed a minimum export price of $550 per tonne and an export duty of 40%. The onion-growing districts of Maharashtra voted on May 13 and May 20.