The base rate fallacy and what Premier Scott Moe got wrong about COVID-19 spread in Sask.
CBC
Experts are pushing back on Premier Scott Moe's pronouncement earlier this week that vaccines no longer prevent the transmission of COVID-19.
Scientists and doctors say the premier's position is not backed up by evidence or data.
"He's spewing basically nonsense," said Nazeem Muhajarine, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.
In a statement published on Saturday, Moe wrote that "vaccination does not keep you from contracting COVID-19" and that "vaccination is not reducing transmission."
On Monday during a news conference, Moe modified his phrasing and repeated the claim.
Unaccompanied by any public health official, the premier said the data was clear to him.
"The bottom line of all of all of this is that vaccines do work, but they are no longer working at preventing transmission in this wave of COVID 19, like they previously did in the Delta wave at which they were quite effective," said Moe.
Experts say that although the Omicron variant has lowered the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing transmission, that doesn't mean they're useless.
"[Vaccination] actually does reduce transmission significantly, particularly when a person has a booster," said Angie Rasmussen, a virologist with the University of Saskatchewan.
Experts say the premier's conclusion appears to be based on multiple misunderstandings.
At the core of the premier's apparent misunderstanding is that there are similar total numbers of unvaccinated and vaccinated people getting COVID-19.
"The new cases that we have in this province are are roughly about the same in vaccinated and unvaccinated people here in Saskatchewan," Moe said earlier this week.
Take the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations that were reported by Saskatchewan on Wednesday, when 123 of the 372 hospitalized patients, or 33 per cent, were not fully vaccinated.
At first glance that figure may seem concerning, as that means 249 of those hospitalized people are fully vaccinated.
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