Tens of thousands of new N.B. voters are the X factor in fall election

The clutter and chaos of renovations at Tom Sosnoski's house in the centre of Moncton is just one indicator of the long process of settling into a new home in a new community.

Another is the ballot Sosnoski will cast in this fall's provincial election — his first as a New Brunswicker.

"You show up somewhere and a part of you thinks, 'Well, I haven't lived here for so long. … Do I know enough to really make much of an informed choice?" he said.

"It seems a bit quick, a bit sudden."

Sosnoski is one of tens of thousands of people who have made New Brunswick their home since the last provincial election.

The largest-ever population increase in the province's history will likely yield the largest-ever number of new voters as well — a spike that, in some key ridings in fast-growing cities, may determine the winners.

"I think that could very easily result in some surprises," said Kristin Cavoukian, a member of the Anglophone East district education council, who moved to the province in 2021.

Sosnoski and his family also arrived in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

They were seeking fresher air, an affordable home and a good internet connection that would allow them to work remotely in their jobs in the technology consulting field.

"It's really a wonderful place to live for remote work," he said.

"We were living in a very small apartment in the middle of Toronto and we were looking for maximum change, I guess you would say. And so this was a very logical move for that."

They found a fixer-upper in one of Moncton's oldest neighbourhoods, near a school, in the riding of Moncton South — an area that often flips between Progressive Conservatives and Liberals.

Akash Rabari is another example of the population boom: an immigrant who came to Canada for university and was able to stay.

He became a citizen Aug. 12, two days before his interview with CBC News.