Southern Manitoba faces risk of major spring flooding along Red River and its tributaries

As southern Manitoba remains enveloped in freezing temperatures and seemingly endless snow flurries, there's another "F" word that keeps coming to mind — flooding.

The province's Hydrologic Forecast Centre released its first flood outlook for the season on Friday and is predicting major flows along the Red River and its tributaries, including the Roseau, Rat and Pembina rivers.

At this time, all are expected to remain below flood protection levels in all communities along their path.

There is also a risk of moderate flooding for most other southern Manitoba basins, including the Assiniboine and Souris rivers and the Whiteshell lakes, a news release from the province says.

The risk of spring flooding is low, however, for the Interlake region and northern Manitoba regions.

Of course, the current outlook is dependent on future weather conditions, including the amount of snow still to come, the speed at which it all eventually melts, the amount of rain that follows, the release says.

In favourable weather conditions, the risk of flooding could actually be low to moderate, the Hydrologic Forecast Centre  report states. Levels would be similar to spring peak levels in 2013 from Emerson to the Red River Floodway inlet south of Winnipeg.

Normal weather patterns will bring a high risk of moderate to major flooding with levels near the spring peak levels observed in 2019 and 2020 from Emerson to the inlet.

Unfavourable weather would created a high risk of major flooding with levels on the Red River main stem similar to 2009 from Emerson to the inlet.

The flood of 2009 caused just under $7.5 million in damage in Winnipeg and forced hundreds of people out of their homes in southern Manitoba.

In 2019, flood forecasters predicted a major deluge that turned out to be moderate, thanks to perfect weather conditions that slowed the spring melt. Even so, the flood level at Emerson was the seventh highest since 1903.

So far this winter, Winnipeg has received more than 143 centimetres of snow with two more snow months to go. The average snowfall for an entire winter is 127.6 cm, said Rob Paola, a retired Environment Canada meteorologist who runs the popular Twitter account @robsobs.

February alone has had more than 33 cm of snow; a normal total for the month is about 15 cm.

Most Manitoba river basins have received 10 to 30 millimetres more precipitation than normal for this time of year, with some areas getting as much as 50 mm more, the Hydrologic Forecast Centre report says.