Social Security recipients got an 8.7% COLA for 2023. Forecasts say it may be stingier in 2024.

This year, the nation's 66 million Social Security recipients got their biggest benefit hike since 1981 — an 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment meant to help offset the highest inflation in four decades. But next year's benefit adjustment is shaping up to be much more meager.

Based on current inflation trends, retirees and other recipients may get a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) of just 3.1%, according to the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older Americans that closely tracks Social Security. That would make the 2024 COLA the smallest in three years, following this year's 8.7% hike and 2022's increase of 5.9%. 

Inflation has been declining but still remains higher than 3.1%, with consumer prices rising 4.9% at an annual rate in April.