Snap election unlikely in Canada as European campaigns send incumbents packing

With international examples of snap elections sending incumbents packing, the federal Conservatives maintaining a healthy lead in national polling, and speculation over whether Trudeau ought to resign, it seems less likely the Liberals will want to roll those particular dice again.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau turned heads internationally in 2021 when he called a snap election during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It was a gamble to try and secure a Liberal majority at a time when much seemed uncertain, and though the gamble failed, Canadians handed Trudeau a second and slightly stronger minority mandate.

Speculation over whether he will send voters back to the polls before the fixed election date of October 2025 has been percolating for more than a year.

But with international examples of snap elections sending incumbents packing, the federal Conservatives maintaining a healthy lead in national polling, and speculation over whether Trudeau ought to resign, it seems less likely the Liberals will want to roll those particular dice again.

In the last week alone, anti-incumbent sentiment as taken down two G7 governments.

On Sunday, France President Emmanuel Macron bet his centrist alliance on a snap vote and lost, though the risky manoeuvre appears to have thwarted the rise of a far-right party in that country.

In the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party was trounced in last week's unusual July vote. The party that had led Britain for 14 years was reduced to Official Opposition, with Keir Starmer's Labour taking 412 of 650 seats in Parliament.