'Slight uptick' in COVID-19 cases seen in wastewater data as Ontario prepares to drop most mask mandates

While COVID-19 cases in Ontario have been declining since they peaked in early January amid the Omicron surge, the province is now beginning to see a "slight uptick" of disease spread through wastewater surveillance data, says a member of Ontario's COVID-19 Science Advisory Table.

The new data is being released less than a week before mask mandates are set to lift in most settings.

Despite that, the coming months are still looking promising.

"We're moving into the spring, we're moving into warmer weather, so our short-term outlook in terms of a potential surge is looking relatively good," assistant scientific director, Karen Born, told CBC Radio's Metro Morning on Thursday.

"[But] as immunity wanes from vaccines or from prior infection, as we move more back into the fall ... we may again begin to see some of the surges that we've experienced over the past two years."

Born said it's anticipated there will be seasonal surges of the novel coronavirus, similar to what is seen with Influenza, but experts hope that some of the more restrictive public health measures that were previously in place, such as school closures, will not have to be re-enforced.

The science table has had to rely on metrics like wastewater surveillance, test positivity and mobility data to model for possible COVID-19 trends since the province cut back on PCR testing late last year.

The group of expert pandemic advisers are set to release their latest modelling on the disease which will be published at noon.

The projections are expected as the province prepares to drop most of the public health measures still in place.

Capacity limits and proof-of-vaccination rules have already been dropped in most spaces and masks will no longer be required in many settings as of March 21.

Born said Ontario is in a "very good" position currently with high rates of vaccine uptake that are highly protective against severe illness and hospitalization. But mask mandates lift and more people gather together indoors, there likely will be more transmission of the virus.

Masks will still be required in high-risk settings like long-term care homes and hospitals, and on public transit, until the end of April.