Sask.'s El Niño winter is over. What does that mean for spring?

Winter 2023-24 was one for the record books.

Canada had its warmest December, January and February — often referred to as "meteorological winter" — since record keeping began in 1948.

While Saskatchewan didn't rank first on record, almost all locations were within the top 10 for warmest winters, with much of the province between 2 C and 6 C warmer than normal.

A likely reason for the unusually spring-like winter weather was El Niño.

The recurring weather phenomenon makes Pacific Ocean waters near the equator, just off the coast of South America, warmer than normal. The warm waters warm the air above and that surges into North America.

"It was a strong El Niño that formed this winter, as forecast," said Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

"We do have a correlation in Western Canada with strong El Niños in that we tend to get warmer than average winters and drier than average winters."

This El Niño appears to have been stronger in Saskatchewan than the last one during the winter of 2015-16. That event made parts of Saskatchewan up to 4 C warmer than normal.

John Gyakum, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at McGill University, said climate change is likely amplifying El Niño's effects.

"If you look at a map of ocean temperature anomalies, it's absolutely seemingly off the charts in terms of just about everywhere," said Gyakum.

A report from the World Meteorological Organization shows ocean surface temperatures around the globe set a new January monthly record.

"This is worrying and can not be explained by El Niño alone," WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said in the report.

Gyakum suspects similar conditions could happen in Canada during future El Niños if ocean temperature anomalies are similar to or higher than what they were this winter.

"This larger background that is impacted by climate change really sets the scene for amplifying the signal of El Niño," he said.