Sask. Party, NDP entering tight race in fall election, new poll says

Based on exclusive new polling data collected by CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the majority of Saskatchewan residents say they’re ready for change, but most don’t see that change happening in 2024.

Based on exclusive new polling data collected by CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the majority of Saskatchewan residents say they’re ready for change, but most don’t see that change happening in 2024.

Saskatchewan’s provincial election must be held on or before Oct. 28. The election has yet to be officially called, but as campaign signs begin to appear across the province, CTV News has partnered with research firm Insightrix to survey how Saskatchewan residents are feeling just ahead of election season.

As of September, 49 per cent of decided voters say they support the NDP while 48 per cent of decided voters say they’ll support the incumbent Saskatchewan Party. Four per cent say they’ll support a different party. Decided voters are neck and neck, reflecting previous polling data Insightrix released in July.

Based on Insightrix data from the last year, the gap between the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP has tightened since September 2023.

"Heading into this election, it's going to be different than the last few elections before it, where there was a large gap in terms of decided voter intent, given that it is really tied and we’ve seen it hold this way since April of this year," said Lang McGilp, research director with Insightrix. "That suggests to me that opinions are fairly sort of set in amongst those who've made their choice."

On the other hand, 33 per cent of voters surveyed are undecided. McGilp said that means there’s a large number of voters that all parties will look to sway during the course of the campaign.

“Who are the people who are uncertain who they're going to vote for, and among those people who are likely to get out and actually vote, rather than just stay on the sidelines,” McGilp said. “Typically we see the undecided voter hanging around kind of the mid 20s, high 20 per cent range, it's actually bubbled up to the low 30s at 33 per cent in our most recent poll.”