Sask. officials knew COVID-19 was spreading at an 'exponential' rate in 2021, but refused restrictions

This story is a collaboration between the Investigative Journalism Foundation and CBC Saskatchewan.

Newly obtained internal data shows the Saskatchewan government knew COVID-19 was spreading at an "exponential" rate in the fall of 2021, providing new insight into what officials knew before a devastating COVID-19 wave hit the province.

The Investigative Journalism Foundation (IJF) and the CBC have obtained a six-page briefing presented to top officials at Saskatchewan's Ministry of Health in September 2021, days before the provincial government publicly declined to re-introduce measures doctors said were urgently needed to stop the spread of the virus. 

The presentation, dated Sept. 3, 2021, came before a wave of COVID-19 infections that killed hundreds and nearly overwhelmed the province's health system.

The government would later have to airlift roughly a quarter of its most critically sick patients to Ontario because there were not enough doctors and medical staff to care for them in Saskatchewan.

The IJF and the CBC requested the data more than two years ago through Access to Information legislation. Government bodies are supposed to respond to such requests within 30 days, with a possible 30-day extension in limited circumstances. In this case, it took two and a half years.

The documents show modelling updates prepared by the Ministry of Health's modelling team and submitted to either deputy health minister Max Hendricks or then-health minister Paul Merriman. The Ministry of Health refused to provide clarity on who received the projections.

The presentation breaks down the reproduction number — or Rt — in Saskatchewan. Rt is a measure of how fast a disease is spreading. A value higher than one means infections are increasing.

The slides show a rapid increase in the spread of COVID-19 over two weeks. 

According to the slides, Saskatchewan's Rt for the week of Aug. 18, 2021 was 1.4, and there were an estimated 3,800 undiagnosed infectious people in the province.

"This indicates that Saskatchewan as a whole [is] in exponential growth," the first slide reads.

Another presentation — dated Sept. 3, 2021 — indicates the Rt had increased to 1.9 by Aug. 29, 2021, with an estimated 8,600 undiagnosed infectious people.

Once again, the report indicates that Saskatchewan was experiencing exponential growth of COVID-19.

At the time these numbers were being recorded by the province, Dr. Cory Neudorf was an interim senior medical health officer with the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA).