Russians are unsure what will happen in Ukraine — but most agree it's Putin's call to make

When Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to reporters in Moscow on Tuesday, he mused about a hypothetical situation where Russia could be dragged into battle against NATO if Ukraine was granted membership in the security alliance.

While he appeared to be open to more negotiations, Putin said Russia was not at fault for the escalating tensions in eastern Europe, even as it continues to amass troops near Ukraine's borders.

European officials and the U.S. administration have warned for weeks that Russia is on the brink of invading Ukraine.

Back in Russia, there is disagreement among citizens and analysts about Putin's true intentions — but most believe it's up to him how the next stage of this conflict plays out.

"It is all in the hands of one guy," said Yevgenia Albats, a Moscow-based journalist and political scientist. "It is clear that people outside Putin's close circle don't have a clue... they don't understand what 'Papa' is going to tell them." 

U.S. and Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia has more than 100,000 troops, along with military hardware, communication equipment and field hospitals, staged near Ukraine's border.

Some analysts see the build-up as a strategic bluff designed to threaten the U.S. and European countries, which are now engaged in diplomatic discussions with Russia over NATO expansion. But Albats insists Ukraine is the intended target, and that Putin is on a mission to bring it under Russia's control.

"Putin refuses to recognize that it has been 30 years since the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine obtained its sovereignty," Albats said. "Its people have the right to decide whether it wants to side with Russia or side with the West."

While Russia denies it is planning to invade Ukraine, it did seize Crimea in 2014, which triggered a war in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, where Russian-backed separatists are still battling against the Ukrainian military. 

In his remarks Tuesday, Putin, who called Ukraine "an instrument" of the West, questioned what would happen if Ukraine tried to regain control of Crimea. 

"Let's imagine Ukraine is a NATO member and starts these military operations. Are we supposed to go to war with the NATO bloc? Has anyone given that any thought? Apparently not," he said.

WATCH | Ukraine's allies brace for a possible invasion:

Putin's comments to reporters were the first time in nearly six weeks that he has spoken about the security demands Russia has issued to the West. 

It wants a guarantee that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, as well as a withdrawal of NATO troops and military infrastructure from countries that joined the alliance after 1997.