Regina and Saskatoon seats to watch in the 2024 provincial election
CBC
Saskatchewan voters can cast their ballot for the Oct. 28 election in person beginning on Oct. 22, and with the campaign heating up there are several constituencies of interest.
The Saskatchewan Party cruised to victory in 2020, winning 48 of 61 seats. Many of those wins were by wide margins. Overall, the party took 61 per cent of the vote to the Saskatchewan NDP's 31 per cent. The NDP won both northern seats, six in Saskatoon and five in Regina. The rest of the map belonged to the governing party.
The 2024 vote looks different in a few key areas.
First, constituencies have been redistributed, leading to a tweaked electoral map. Second, there are some new names for those ridings.
Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck have been travelling around the province over the past month but have narrowed their focus to a few communities where the vote is expected to be close.
Both Moe and Beck announced their election platform in Saskatoon. Beck kicked off her campaign in Regina before hitting Highway 11 to Saskatoon. Moe launched his campaign in Saskatoon and then headed south to Regina.
Polls and redistribution suggest there could be some tighter races in the two cities. Here are some races to watch on election night, in no particular order. We are including how the vote would have broken down in 2024 under the new redistribution.
Heading into the vote, the NDP holds seven of the 12 city seats. All seven incumbents are running for re-election. Changes to the map affect Regina Mount Royal most notably as the former Regina Rosemont has tripled in size. The redistribution of 2023 votes moves the NDP margin from 1,580 votes down to 429.
Regina Northeast
Candidates: SP: Rahul Singh, NDP: Jacqueline Roy, Green Party: Anthony Thomas MajoreIncumbent: None (previously held by SP)2020 Margin: 450 votes2024 Margin with redistribution: 895 votes (previously held by SP)
Storyline: The NDP held this seat for the better part of 40 years. The Saskatchewan Party broke through in this constituency in 2011. It flipped back to the NDP through a byelection in 2018. In 2020, candidate Gary Grewal won it for the Sask. Party. Grewal is not seeking re-election. The Sask. Party's candidate, Rahul Singh, and the NDP's Jacqueline Roy are newcomers to politics. Roy is a former provincial councillor with the Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation. If the NDP are going to make gains in the cities, they will have to flip seats like Northeast.
Regina Pasqua
Candidates: SP: Muhamad Fiaz, NDP: Bhajan Brar, Green Party: Ekaterina Cabylis, PC: Justin Parnell, Buffalo Party: Shannon ChappleIncumbent: Fiaz2020 Margin: 256 votes2024 Margin with redistribution: 45 votes
Storyline: One of the closest votes in 2020 got closer with redistribution. The Sask. Party's Muhamad Fiaz has won the last two elections by fewer than 300 votes. The new map cut the size of Regina Pasqua by about one-third. The 2024 vote is a rematch between Fiaz and the NDP's Bhajan Brar. In 2020, Darrin Lamoureux of the Liberal Party received 962 votes, which may have helped Fiaz edge Brar. The map changes illustrate Pasqua could be one of the most vulnerable seats for the Sask. Party.
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