Recession avoided? History says otherwise

Economic data heavily points to a soft-landing but at this stage of the cycle it typically does.

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link. Investors are betting on a soft landing — a successful effort by the Federal Reserve to pare back inflation without sparking a recession — based on strong economic data and hopes that interest rate cuts are imminent. But Wall Street could be getting ahead of itself: History proves that investors would be well-advised to remain cautious this year. The good news: Recession fears were widespread at this point last year, but economic growth in the US has proven resilient. Inflation is easing and is closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target than it has been since the beginning of 2021. Policymakers are forecasting that interest rates are restrictive enough to begin cutting them this year. The Fed has hiked rates 11 times in the past two years, but the unemployment rate has consistently remained below 4%.