Putin's threats have nuclear experts watching closely
CBC
With Russia losing ground in Ukraine's east and south even as it claims to be annexing it, Kremlin watchers are faced with a pressing question: Will President Vladimir Putin pull the nuclear trigger?
For now, analysts cautiously suggest that the risk of Putin using the world's biggest nuclear arsenal still seems low. The CIA says it hasn't seen signs of an imminent Russian nuclear attack.
"We don't see any practical evidence today in the U.S. intelligence community that he's moving closer to actual use, that there's an imminent threat of using tactical nuclear weapons," CIA director William Burns told CBS News Monday.
"What we have to do is take it very seriously, watch for signs of actual preparations."
Kremlin watchers are scratching their heads over Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal," in part because they don't see how nuclear force could greatly help reverse Russia's military losses in Ukraine.
Ukrainian troops aren't using large concentrations of tanks to wrest back ground, and combat is sometimes for places as small as villages. So what could Russian nuclear forces aim for, with winning effect?
The backlash could also turn Putin into a global pariah.
"Breaking the nuclear taboo would impose, at a minimum, complete diplomatic and economic isolation on Russia," said Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher with the Royal United Services Institute in London that specializes in defence and security.
Long-range nuclear weapons that Russia could use in a direct conflict with the United States are battle-ready. But its stocks of warheads for shorter ranges — so-called tactical weapons that Putin might be tempted to use in Ukraine — are not, analysts say.
"All those weapons are in storage," said Pavel Podvig, another senior researcher who specializes in nuclear weapons at the UN's disarmament think-tank in Geneva.
"You need to take them out of the bunker, load them on trucks," and then marry them with missiles or other delivery systems, he said.
Analysts also expect other escalations first, including ramped-up Russian strikes in Ukraine using non-nuclear weapons.
"I don't think there will be a bolt out of the blue," said Nikolai Sokov, who took part in arms control negotiations when he worked for Russia's foreign ministry and is now with the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.
In an interview with CBC News, Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister, said the threat of nuclear weapons is immaterial to citizens who are fighting for their survival regardless.
