Polling guru Nate Silver gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning presidential election
Fox News
Polling and data expert Nate Silver revealed the results of his first election forecast on Wednesday, which showed Donald Trump was favored to win.
Hanna Panreck is an associate editor at Fox News.
Silver's forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.
"If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied," Silver wrote.
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