Poll suggests PCs hold a commanding lead in Nova Scotia election

New poll results released by Narrative Research suggest the Progressive Conservatives are heading into Tuesday's provincial election with a commanding lead over their political rivals.

"Findings suggest the PCs will achieve a majority win in the upcoming election," Margaret Brigley, CEO of the Halifax-based company, said in a news release Wednesday. "The question now is which party will be the official opposition."

A telephone survey conducted from Nov. 4 to Nov. 17 asked 526 adults which party they'd vote for in the Nova Scotia election. It found 44 per cent of those decided voters would cast ballots for the PCs, 28 per cent would support the NDP and 24 per cent would back the Liberals. The Green Party garnered three per cent support.

Twenty-four per cent said they were undecided or didn't know.

Those results are considered accurate within 4.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

"Our seat projection model suggests that second place is currently too close to call, and that the outcome will be largely dependent on who gets out to vote," Brigley said in the release. "Females and younger residents (18-34yrs) are notably more likely to vote NDP than Liberal."

At dissolution, the PCs held 34 seats, the Liberals had 14, the New Democrats held six and there was one Independent.

A smaller sample size of respondents from the Halifax region, with a greater margin of error, suggests tighter races in the capital region, primarily between the PCs and the NDP.

Of the 256 people surveyed in Halifax Regional Municipality, 39 per cent supported the PCs compared to 35 per cent for the NDP. The Liberals had 21 per cent support in the urban and suburban area of Halifax.

In a sample size of 203 respondents, the PCs received the strongest support in the rural parts of the province at 49 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 24 per cent support and the NDP with the backing of 21 per cent of those polled.

Pollsters asked 800 people who they'd prefer most as premier. Thirty-five per cent of them picked PC Leader Tim Houston, 23 per cent chose the NDP's Claudia Chender, and Liberal Leader Zach Churchill won 18 per cent support.

Twenty-three per cent said they preferred none of the candidates, didn't know or wouldn't answer.