Poll suggests fighting Ottawa is a political winner for Danielle Smith and the UCP
CBC
EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research in April, leading into the first anniversary of the United Conservative Party's general election win last May. The poll offers insight into how Albertans feel about Danielle Smith's UCP government and the Opposition NDP.
As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time.
This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research.
Danielle Smith's critics often charge the Alberta premier's constant battle with Ottawa wastes time and resources, ignores federal benefits and even backfires.
But it works from a purely political perspective — keeping United Conservative (UCP) supporters happy — according to recent CBC News polling.
"There is a real close tie between being satisfied with how the UCP government is dealing with the federal government and liking the government," said Janet Brown, who conducted the survey for CBC News.
Using a statistical analysis that estimates the relationships between policy and supporting the government, CBC's polling data predicts what issues drive overall support for the governing UCP.
Imagine all the polling data flowing through statistical software simultaneously to mathematically sort out the most meaningful — or statistically significant — issues driving satisfaction with the provincial government. The modelling reveals which issues predict the overall approval of the UCP government.
Despite the sustained controversy surrounding invoking its contentious Sovereignty Act to beat back federal clean energy regulation, floating an unpopular Alberta-only pension plan and establishing a provincial police force, analysis of the polling shows that standing up to the federal government matters a lot in the minds of Albertans who strongly or somewhat approve of the governing UCP. After honesty, it's the second biggest issue predicting support for the UCP.
Smith's constant barrage against Ottawa is a winning issue with UCP supporters, helping the governing party keep the support it had among Alberta voters last May and underscoring the good news in the poll for the governing party.
Despite a modest approval rating of 4.5 out of 10 among Alberta voters, Smith's aggressive stance against Ottawa keeps her core supporters happy.
Alberta's political leaders have waged an unrelenting war on the federal government for generations, with the most effective premiers acting as "guardians against a marauding federal government."
This political posturing works because it turns the federal government into a scapegoat, hides provincial problems such as health care and sidelines the opposition.
The notorious National Energy Program (NEP) showdown over Alberta's energy wealth in the early 1980s sparked an upswing of Western separatism and a rancorous political battle between Alberta and the feds.
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