Opinion: Key Issues To Keep An Eye On G20 Summit 2023

With just days to go for the G20 Summit, India is gearing up to welcome a galaxy of powerful global leaders. Given the high-profile nature of the event, expectations are high. Important questions are also being raised. Will Xi Jinping give the event a miss? Would tensions over the Russia-Ukraine War hijack the summit? Will Xi Jinping and Joe Biden have a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit? These issues will remain points of discussion over the next few days. Besides these questions, there are three broader issues that will attract significant attention.

First, one needs to address the elephant in the room - Russia's war in Ukraine. Ever since the war began in February 2022, tensions have been high between Russia and NATO member states. During the G20 Summit in Bali last year, these tensions threatened to overshadow the entire summit. Western powers pushed for a resolution that condemned Russian military action in Ukraine. During the Bali summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO countries of launching a "hybrid" war and asked western powers not to "politicise" the summit. Ukrainian President Vlodoymyr Zelenskiy participated virtually, addressing the summit members.

A year later in Delhi, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to dominate the international discourse. At a media interaction, Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov accused "certain countries" of trying to "hijack" the G20 Summit's agenda. Sergei Lavrov has also threatened to block any resolution that does not take into account Russian interests in Ukraine. As the host, the ball will be in India's court to ensure these tensions do not overshadow the meeting. The summit also provides India an opportunity to try and get both sides to reach some a middle ground. Given India's equations with both the NATO powers and Russia, this can be a possibility.

Second, geopolitical equations in the Middle East have evolved significantly since the last G20 Summit in Bali. While the US and Saudi Arabia remain close allies, tensions have arisen between the two regarding oil production. In July, OPEC+ countries jointly agreed to cut down oil production by around 1.4 million barrels per day. This fuelled fears of a significant increase in oil prices. With western economies in particular struggling to control rising inflation, this came as a major setback. President Biden described this as a "betrayal" and vowed further action.