Opinion | India's Options For Russia-Ukraine Peace Are Growing Complicated

The situation around the Ukraine conflict is becoming more complicated. The US is in an election mode, and that means that any step that might disadvantage the Democratic presidential candidate cannot be taken. After supporting a proxy war in Ukraine against Russia all this while, any step to de-escalate or open the doors to negotiation would be almost impossible politically.

The choice is between escalating or avoiding any serious new escalatory step. It is here that the discussion over allowing Zelenskyy to use NATO-supplied long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory comes in. Ukraine is already striking deep into Russia with drones and has also launched a land invasion of Russia in Kursk. But for Russia, it will mean a major escalation by NATO if the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used against Russia itself, although they have been used against Ukrainian territories that Russia has annexed. Russia has in practice accepted that distinction and not raised the stakes as President Vladimir Putin has now done.

The Russian president has warned that such a move will mean NATO entering into a direct conflict with Russia as these missiles cannot be launched without guidance by US satellites and, indeed, by NATO crews on the ground in Ukraine, as the Ukrainian military would not know how to prime them technically for targeting. Putin has declared that Russia will take appropriate steps to counter this escalation. What this could mean is a matter of speculation as Russia could have options below the nuclear threshold.