Ontario's new pandemic strategy risks 'out of control' transmission, epidemiologists warn

Two Ontario epidemiologists are warning that recent changes to the province's COVID-19 pandemic strategy risk accept uncontrolled transmission of the virus, while at the same time, limiting the ability to measure its spread.

Raywat Deonandan, epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, and Colin Furness, infection control epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Toronto, both say they aren't convinced the province's new approach will be able to protect Ontarians and the broader health system from the impact of a surge of the highly-infectious Omicron variant.

"There seems to be an acceptance that transmission will be out of control the next few weeks and maybe there is a silent hope that unrestrained transmission might result in sufficient immunity in the population without much cost," said Deonandan.

"I think that's a dangerous way of thinking, if indeed that is what they're thinking."

"I feel abandoned by the province. I feel that kids and teachers have been abandoned," Furness added. "We're set up to be mass infected over the next several days, and we don't have the health supports in order to be able to deal with that."

The criticism comes after Ontario announced Thursday a major shift in its approach to testing and isolation, as well as a two-day delay in the return of schools in response to an unprecedented increase in cases. The province has set successive records for daily COVID-19 cases in the past week, with the latest — 16,713 new infections — reported Friday morning, New Year's Eve.

The province's announcement didn't include any new restrictions on gatherings, beyond a limiting capacity at large indoor venues.

LISTEN | Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Kieran Moore, explains the province's plan for testing, schools:

As of Friday, publicly-funded PCR testing will only be available for high risk individuals. People with symptoms are being told to assume they are infected and self-isolate.

The change will greatly reduce the significance of new daily case counts as a measure of community spread, and Furness equated the move to "turn[ing] out the lights in the room and leav[ing] everyone in the dark."

Speaking on CBC Radio's Metro Morning Friday, Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario's chief medical officer of health, said the province needs to preserve its testing resources for those at highest risk of severe illness. He said the province will be closely monitoring other metrics, including hospital admissions, ICU capacity, deaths and long-term care home outbreaks.

"The most important metric is — and our goal as a society has always been — to protect our health system so that we can provide the right care at the right place, at the right time for all Ontarians," Moore said. "At present, we have good ICU capacity."

WATCH | Ontario announces changes to PCR testing:

Inside schools, Moore said absenteeism will replace positive tests as a measurement for COVID-19 prevalence when classes resume on Jan. 5.