Ontario's COVID-19 case counts expected to remain stable as long as public health measures are not lifted

Ontario's daily COVID-19 case counts are expected to remain stable over the next month despite an increase in social contacts, newly released modelling shows, but only if public health measures are not lifted.

The new data was released by the province's Science Advisory Table late Friday morning.

In the presentation, officials say that COVID-19 cases are declining in most public health units across Ontario as a result of vaccinations and continued public health measures.

The modelling suggests that even with "some increase in contacts between individuals," Ontario could see about 500 new COVID-19 cases a day in November. That number increases to a little over 600 daily infections with a "substantial increase in contacts."

Officials did not specify what a substantial increase in contacts means, but noted that even in that scenario, occupancy in Ontario's intensive care units would remain stable with fewer than 200 patients.