Omicron driving up Canada’s R value at ‘unprecedented’ rate. Here’s what that means
Global News
The reproductive rate of the Omicron variant in Ontario is almost four times as much as the Delta variant, which experts say could result in an overwhelmed health-care system.
The transmissibility of the Omicron COVID-19 variant in Canada — where it may soon become the dominant strain — is seen as potentially problematic by infectious disease specialists.
In Ontario, the only province that has tracked its reproductive rate (R value), the variant is infecting almost four times as many people as the Delta variant.
“It’s safe to say that this is a very fast-moving variant that’s rapidly taking over and will be probably the dominant variant here in Ontario by the end of this week,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital.
In Ontario, recent data released by the Science Advisory Table shows the R value for Omicron at 4.01, which Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital, said was “unprecedented” in that it has never reached that high at any time during the pandemic. Comparatively, the Delta variant has an R value of 1.09. Both variants combined were last recorded at 1.32 on Dec. 10.
The R value for the variants combined shows the pandemic is not yet over, but the Omicron figure paints a starker image – that if preventative measures are not enacted the pandemic could spiral out of control.
Essentially, one person would be infecting four people, who would then infect 16 and then 64 people who would infect 256 people and so on. The doubling effect would occur every five days.
If the R value were to hold true, it could cripple the Canadian health system in a few months, as millions of Canadians would be infected and re-infected with COVID.
The closer the reproductive rate — also known as “R number” — is to zero, the better. The lower the number, the less the virus is spreading in the community, which means hospitals are less overwhelmed and intensive care units are not exceeding their capacity.
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