Omicron BA.5 will account for nearly 70% of cases by Canada Day, experts predict

Researchers examining the threat of emerging COVID-19 strains predict Omicron BA.5 will account for nearly 70 per cent of cases in much of the country by Canada Day.

Researchers examining the threat of emerging COVID-19 strains predict Omicron BA.5 will account for nearly 70 per cent of cases in much of the country by Canada Day.

Modelling expert Sarah Otto of the Coronavirus Variants Rapid Response Network says the fast-spreading subvariant is on track to dominate infections across the country.

The University of British Columbia professor predicted a July wave, peaking in August.

“The last sequence data was mid-June but the projections for July 1 would be: roughly 13 per cent (of cases are) BA.4, and 69 per cent BA.5,” said Otto, co-lead of the computational biology and modelling arm of the network, also known as CoVaRR-Net.

“I’m referring to it as a third Omicron wave because I’ve lost count of all of the other waves.”

The head of Ontario’s COVID-19 advisory group also suspected BA.5 to be the main driver nationally, and pointed to several indicators that suggest it is already responsible for more than half of his province’s reported cases.

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Dr. Fahad Razak said the strain is especially adept at evading immunity from vaccination and prior infection, leading to “a very fast rise.”