Officials outline 'worst-case' scenario for Chilcotin River flood
CBC
Officials have a better idea of what flooding along the Chilcotin and Fraser rivers might look like after a landslide Wednesday.
The River Forecast Centre issued an update Friday, outlining the "worst-case scenario" predictions of how high river levels will rise all the way to Hope, B.C.
The centre says water bursting through landslide debris could cause river levels downstream to rise extremely quickly along the Chilcotin and Fraser rivers.
In the release, officials say flows are expected to be far above peak spring levels along the Chilcotin River, but below spring levels along the Fraser River.
Evacuation orders remain in place for about 100 square kilometres of land along the Chilcotin River, stretching from near Hanceville, B.C., to where the Chilcotin and Fraser rivers meet.
A flood warning, signalling water levels are expected to rise past river banks imminently, remains in place for the Chilcotin River upstream of Farwell Canyon.
A flood watch remains in place for the Chilcotin and Fraser rivers downstream until Hope, meaning river levels are expected to rise and may spill over the banks.
Overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday, a landslide happened on the Chilcotin River near Farwell Canyon, about 285 kilometres north of Vancouver. The landslide created a dam across the river, about 600 metres wide and 30 metres tall.
Since then, officials have warned the dam will fail. Debris, like fallen trees, and water have been building up behind the landslide for days.
On Friday, Bowinn Ma, B.C.'s Emergency Preparedness and Climate Change Minister said it's most likely water will spill over the top of the dam, instead of bursting through.
Water and debris are likely to flow downstream into the Chilcotin and Fraser rivers.
Friday's release outlines the River Forecast Centre's preliminary modelling of a sudden dam failure. It is subject to change as the centre receives more information.
According to the River Forecast Centre, after about 90 minutes of a failure, water would reach the Farrell Canyon Bridge, flowing at about 21 times the typical flow rate during the spring. River levels are estimated to rise by 10 metres.
Around 29 hours after a sudden dam failure, the centre forecasts that the Fraser River at Hope — downstream of the landslide — is expected to rise 30 centimetres.
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