O’Toole facing crucial test as Conservative MPs gather for caucus retreat

Conservative MPs are expected to receive James Cumming's post-election review of the O'Toole campaign, which saw the Conservatives win fewer seats than under Andrew Scheer in 2019.

Erin O’Toole’s grip over the Conservative caucus will face a crucial test next week as the party prepares for a pre-parliament strategy session.

And Conservative insiders — including some of O’Toole’s own supporters — worry the Conservative leader’s hold over the party is even more tenuous than in the immediate aftermath of last year’s disappointing election results.

Next week’s meeting is expected to include the findings of former MP James Cumming’s report into O’Toole’s 2021 campaign. O’Toole selected Cumming — who lost his Edmonton Centre seat in that campaign — to review the party’s campaign strategy, data game and leader’s tour.

The Conservatives have not met as a group since a fractious caucus meeting in late December, where sources tell Global News that Quebec’s ban on religious symbols for public employees, MPs’ travel during the Omicron wave and the party’s position on lockdowns were discussed.

The December meeting was described as a “bloodbath” in the Toronto Star — a description Conservatives with knowledge of the meeting begrudgingly admit was accurate.

“There’s been no leadership from (O’Toole) for months,” one exasperated MP told Global News in an interview.

Global granted the MP — as well as others who spoke for this article — anonymity, in order to speak freely about internal party dynamics and closed-door caucus conversations.

“He’s had sporadic moments of trying to do different things. But that caucus meeting … just demonstrated, I think, to the entire caucus that he no longer is the leader and that caucus is the leader. And if caucus sticks together, then the leader will do what he’s told,” the MP added.