‘No means no’: How Portugal resisted the far right, but only just

Portugal’s conservatives have formed a minority government without the hard right. But as the Chega party rises relentlessly in the polls, can it last?

When the March elections in Portugal saw the hard-right political party, Chega, quadruple its parliamentary representation from 12 seats to 50, one conclusion appeared overwhelmingly obvious. Overnight, it looked as if Europe’s most westerly country had become the continent’s latest front line between populist, ultra-conservative parties enjoying surging support and more traditional, centrist formations facing crumbling voter backing.

The Chega electoral earthquake – and the narrowest of victories for the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition over the incumbent Socialists by just 80 seats to 78 – showed how voter support for the two main parties had slumped to its lowest level since 1985. But when it comes to running the country, albeit with much shakier support than they would like, for now Portugal’s long-standing political establishment remains at the helm.

On April 2, Luis Montenegro, whose conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD) constitutes AD’s principle component, is set to be sworn in as leader of a new minority government, and he will do so without counting on default parliamentary support from the hard-right “new kid on the political block”.

“Governing under the current circumstances is anticipated to be challenging,” warns Sofia Serra-Silva, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon’s Social Science Institute. “The new government will navigate a fragmented parliament, with the Socialist Party strongly established as the opposition and Chega applying pressure from the right. For the AD, securing a simple majority will be a complex task.”

So, while the PSD celebrates its return to power for the first time since 2015, the question of how a minority centre-right government will successfully legislate its policies – while avoiding a power-sharing agreement with Chega – will be central to the country’s political future.