New poll suggests Legault even less popular than Justin Trudeau

A prominent polling analyst says Quebec's governing party would be reduced to fewer than 10 seats in the provincial legislature if an election were held today, based on current poll numbers.

A prominent polling analyst says Quebec's governing party would be reduced to fewer than 10 seats in the provincial legislature if an election were held today, based on current poll numbers.

Philippe J. Fournier, creator of poll aggregator 338Canada, says Premier François Legault's approval rating is now worse than that of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which recent polls have pegged around 30 per cent.

A Pallas Data poll released Monday for 338Canada and L'Actualité magazine suggests a majority of Quebecers think Legault should step down before the next provincial election in 2026, and only one in five respondents are satisfied with his performance.

"We have in Quebec a premier who not long ago could almost walk on water," Fournier said in an interview. "And the confidence, the link that he had with many voters in Quebec is utterly broken right now."

Legault won a second term in 2022, when his party secured 90 of 125 seats — the largest majority Quebec had seen in decades. But the centre-right party he co-founded in 2011, the Coalition Avenir Québec, has been lagging behind the sovereigntist Parti Québécois in opinion polls for more than a year.

Fournier said he was surprised Legault's numbers are as bad as they are. "Twenty per cent satisfaction is incredibly low for a party that won 90 seats two years ago," he said. "Usually a premier or a prime minister with such numbers, when they're in the second mandate, there is no coming back."

The poll showed 53 per cent of respondents think Legault should not seek a third mandate, with fairly consistent results across age groups and regions of the province. Fournier pointed out that the 33 per cent of respondents who said Legault should stay on include Parti Québécois and Liberal voters who may want him to seek re-election because they think he's weak.