New COVID-19 modelling suggests restrictions helping Alberta turn corner on pandemic

New COVID-19 modelling shows Alberta may have finally reached its pandemic peak, and if the province leaves restrictions in place and continues to increase vaccination rates, infections and hospitalizations will continue to decline.

"It looks from my point of view that, in fact, the peak has been reached and Alberta is on the other side," said Dean Karlen, a University of Victoria physics professor and member of British Columbia's independent COVID-19 Modelling Group.

Karlen said he looked at hospitalization rates, rather than infection rates, because Alberta eliminated most contact tracing at the beginning of August. 

The hospitalization data shows a direct link to restrictions reimposed by Premier Jason Kenney when he again declared a state of public health emergency on Sept. 15. 

"We see ... in the last 10 days, a dramatic turnaround in the number of people being admitted to hospital," Karlen said.

"So when we use the model to identify the date that this transition in transmission occurred, then the model finds that Sept. 15 is the best fit to that data." 

Kenney declared a state of emergency and brought back restrictions when the province's health-care system was on the verge of being overwhelmed as infection rates and hospitalizations skyrocketed.