Netanyahu's quest for political survival could be affecting the push for Mideast peace, U.S. election

In May, after numerous failed attempts, it appeared U.S. negotiators had reached a deal on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. U.S. President Joe Biden himself announced that Israel had come forward with a plan.

But while Biden seemed optimistic, there was silence from the prime minister of Israel.

Benjamin Netanyahu didn't say anything until more than two weeks later, when he released a video in which he criticized the Biden administration, his strongest ally, for withholding weapons shipments he described as vital for Israel's war effort.

It was another blow to a shaky ceasefire process. More than 100 hostages are still being held in Gaza after they were captured by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, when the group launched a surprise attack against Israel that Israeli officials say killed more than 1,200 people.

Since then, Israel has waged a military campaign in the Gaza strip, with its airstrikes and ground offensives killing more than 43,000 people, according to Gaza's Health Ministry.

While experts and U.S. officials say Hamas is to blame for many of the problems around the negotiating table, some say there is more going on. 

The Fifth Estate analyzed Netanyahu's actions over the last year and spoke with experts who have been at the negotiating table between Israelis and Palestinains to understand how the Israeli prime minister's moves may be guided by self-interest and may be having a ripple effect on the U.S. election.

Laura Blumenfeld, a former senior policy adviser to the U.S. State Department on Israel-Palestinian negotiations, says many Israelis are watching months of failed ceasefire negotiations and questioning Netanyahu's goals.  

"They look at him cynically and say this is all about Netanyahu preserving his own security rather than the national security of Israel," Blumenfeld said. 

"What I'm hearing, what's interesting from the intelligence community in Israel, is that for the first time in their lives — folks who've followed this for decades — the irrational actor in the Middle East is Benjamin Netanyahu."

Hostage families have staged several demonstrations outside Netanyahu's residence in Jerusalem and in the capital of Tel Aviv over the last year, urging him to get a deal done. 

In June, after an Israeli-proposed ceasefire plan backed by the White House failed to finalize an agreement, the Hostage Families Forum blamed Netanyahu's "apprehension" regarding the proposal and said his action "abandons 120 hostages and violates the state's moral obligation to its citizens."

Critics of the Israeli prime minister also say Netanyahu may be dragging out and expanding the conflict in the Middle East to influence the result of next week's U.S. election by making the Biden administration look ineffective and to inflame anger over the war within the Democratic base. 

In the U.S., tens of thousands of Arab Americans are upset with American support for Israeli's military campaign. Many have said they're not going to vote for Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris based on that. With the war still making headlines, it keeps the issue top of mind for voters in key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin.