Nenshi viewed most positively in NDP race but party faces uphill battle against UCP: poll

A new poll suggests Albertans view Naheed Nenshi most positively among his competitors for the NDP leadership, but no matter who wins, the party still faces an uphill battle against the governing UCP.

"Convincing half of Albertans or more to vote NDP is always a tough prospect, and right now, none of the candidates that are running really do any better than Rachel Notley is doing today," said pollster David Coletto.

"That doesn't mean they can't or they won't in the future."

The Abacus Data survey of 1,000 people shows Nenshi receiving a positive impression from 31 per cent of respondents, with NDP MLA Sarah Hoffman receiving the second-highest positive impression at 12 per cent.

Nenshi, a former Calgary mayor, also had the highest negative impression among the NDP candidates, at 23 per cent. But Albertans viewed Nenshi more positively overall than his competitors, giving him an eight-point net positive impression.

Kathleen Ganley, a Calgary MLA, was the only other candidate to receive a positive net impression from respondents, though many did not know the candidates well enough to offer an opinion.

Rakhi Pancholi, who dropped out of the race Tuesday, had a net negative impression, at minus 2, but 61 per cent of those surveyed said they didn't know enough about her to offer an impression.

Nenshi announced his plans to run for the leadership on March 11, joining a field of candidates running to replace NDP Leader Rachel Notley, whose party lost last spring to the United Conservative Party.

The field now includes Nenshi, Ganley, Hoffman, Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, and labour leader Gil McGowan.

The poll, conducted from March 14 to March 21, suggests the next NDP leader has some ground to make up.

When all respondents were asked for whom would they vote if a provincial election were held today, 45 per cent said they would cast their ballot for the UCP, down one percentage point since October. 

Thirty-three per cent said they would vote for NDP, a figure unchanged since October. Two per cent said they would vote for the Alberta Party, two per cent fell into the "other" category, while 18 per cent of respondents were undecided.

Among the survey's committed voters, a total of 779 respondents, 55 per cent said they would vote UCP, while 40 per cent said they would vote for Alberta's New Democrats.

With committed voters, the UCP is strongest outside the province's two largest centres, with 66 per cent of respondents from other communities backing the party, compared to Calgary (52 per cent) and Edmonton (42 per cent).