NDP now enjoys 6-point lead over PCs, Angus Reid poll suggests

The New Democrats have opened up a lead over the Progressive Conservatives in Manitoba, according to a new popular opinion survey conducted by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute.

The NDP enjoyed a six-percentage-point advantage over the PCs across the province as the Oct. 3 provincial election approaches, suggests the survey of 990 Manitoban adults conducted from Sept. 13 to 19. Of the voters surveyed, 47 per cent intend to vote for the NDP, 41 per cent for the PCs and nine per cent for the Manitoba Liberals.

Within Winnipeg, home to a majority of the seats in the Manitoba Legislature, the NDP has a 22-percentage-point lead over the PCs, 53 to 31 per cent. Outside Winnipeg, the Tories have a 15-point advantage over the NDP, 53 to 38 per cent.

The poll suggests a shift in voter intention since June, when a Probe Research poll suggested a provincewide deadlock in party support.

The poll was conducted online among a representative, randomized sample of members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of three per cent.

The survey suggests a majority of voters in this election intend to vote against a party rather than for it. Angus Reid said 43 per cent of the Manitobans surveyed intend to cast a vote for a party or leader they really like, while 57 per cent intend to vote against another party or leader.

The poll suggests Manitoba voters are not overly enamoured with either NDP Leader Wab Kinew or PC Leader Heather Stefanson — but have a much more favourable view of Kinew.

The NDP leader is viewed favourably by 48 per cent of survey respondents, while Stefanson's favourability is 17 per cent.

The favourability gap between the two has widened since the start of the formal election campaign, the survey suggests. When asked whether their opinion of Manitoba party leaders has improved, remained the same or declined in recent weeks, Kinew's favourability went up two percentage points, which is within the margin of error, while the drop for Stefanson was 21 percentage points.

Asked who would be the best premier, 34 per cent of survey respondents chose Kinew, 23 per cent selected Stefanson and 11 per cent said Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont would be optimal. Significantly, 21 per cent said none of the leaders would make the best premier.

Survey respondents were also asked which party they believed is the best overall choice to form Manitoba's next government. Angus Reid said 39 per cent chose the NDP, 33 per cent selected the PCs and seven per cent favoured the Liberals.

The survey also suggests the PCs and NDP acted prudently to make the cost of living and health care, respectively, the main planks in their election campaigns. Affordability ranked as the most important issue among those who took the poll, followed by health care and crime.

The survey suggests 37 per cent of Manitobans believe the PCs are better positioned to manage the economy, compared to 28 per cent for the NDP.  It also suggests 40 per cent believe the NDP would serve as better stewards of health care, versus 27 per cent for the PCs.

The PCs had a slight edge over the NDP on crime, 33 to 29 per cent.