Naheed Nenshi's Alberta NDP still trailing governing UCP by 14 points in new survey

Naheed Nenshi's recent landslide NDP leadership win doesn't appear to have translated into a major shift in public opinion in Alberta as new polling suggests the governing United Conservative Party is holding a steady 14-point lead.

The Abacus Data survey of 1,000 Albertans aged 18 and over, conducted days after Nenshi's leadership win on June 22, found results consistent with the last survey the polling firm released in March. 

If the election were held today, 54 per cent of committed voters would choose the UCP while 40 per cent would vote for Alberta's New Democrats, the poll suggests. Six per cent would choose another party.

Compared to March, the UCP is down one point and the NDP's support has not moved.

"Despite Nenshi's landslide victory … he finds himself still well behind, and clearly lots of work to do if he hopes to be the premier in over three years when the next election comes around," said pollster David Coletto.

While the UCP remains in the driver's seat, the poll suggests notable support for one move that could change the public's perception of Nenshi's party: a split of the provincial NDP from the federal party.

"The biggest hurdle for the Alberta NDP is the fact that there's large numbers of Albertans in many parts of the province who wouldn't even consider voting NDP," Coletto said.

"If you want to send a signal that the Alberta version of this party is different from its federal counterpart, that might be a first step."

Shortly after winning the leadership, Nenshi said party members could make a decision on a possible split at a party convention next spring. 

When asked about the possible divorce, 49 per cent of Albertans said they supported it, compared to 21 per cent who opposed it. 

That included 51 per cent of accessible Alberta NDP voters, referring to those Albertans who are open to voting for the party. Forty-nine per cent of Alberta NDP supporters and 43 per cent of federal NDP supporters also said they supported such a move.

"Whether [NDP] members feel the same way, I don't know. But certainly there's broad, broad support for it," Coletto said.

During the leadership campaign, Nenshi made reference to conversations he has had with voters who indicated their trepidation in supporting the provincial NDP given its ties to the federal party.

"That party has been pretty decisively opposed to the energy industry, broadly speaking," said political analyst Lori Williams of Mount Royal University.