More people will be hospitalized as public health restrictions lift: Ontario science table

Ontario's COVID-19 science table says based on an uptick of coronavirus detected in wastewater and the province ending most public health measures next week, it's predicting more people will wind up in the hospital and in some cases intensive care. 

In new modelling released Thursday, the group of medical experts say hospital and ICU occupancy are projected to increase over the next few weeks, but will not reach the numbers seen amid January's Omicron surge. The science table projects it will also be for a "limited period of time," though that depends on peoples' behaviour.

The new data was released less than a week before mask mandates are set to lift in most settings, although officials including Dr. Kieran Moore have encouraged Ontarians to keep wearing masks in high-risk settings. 

The modelling suggests the extent of a rise in transmission will depend on the number of close contacts an individual has — especially in indoor settings without masks — vaccination status and the spread of BA.2 subvariant.

The group estimates that the current daily number of infections is between 15,000 to 20,000, based on wastewater data. 

The science table said a complete vaccine series, which is currently two doses in children, three doses in adults, and four in long-term care residents and other eligible high-risk groups, is the best protection against contracting and spreading the virus.

"Older adults, immunocompromised, unvaccinated and marginalized individuals and groups are still susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19," the report noted.

The science table has had to rely on metrics like wastewater surveillance, test positivity and mobility data to model for possible COVID-19 trends since the province limited PCR testing late last year.

A member of the science table says while there are anticipated increases in transmission across Ontario, the coming months still look promising.

"We're moving into the spring, we're moving into warmer weather, so our short-term outlook in terms of a potential surge is looking relatively good," assistant scientific director, Karen Born, told CBC Radio's Metro Morning Thursday morning.

"[But] as immunity wanes from vaccines or from prior infection, as we move more back into the fall ... we may again begin to see some of the surges that we've experienced over the past two years."

Born said it's anticipated there will be seasonal surges of the novel coronavirus, similar to what is seen with influenza, but experts hope that some of the more restrictive public health measures that were previously in place, such as school closures, will not have to be re-enforced.

The projections were released as the province prepares to drop all remaining masking rules and emergency orders on April 27.

Capacity limits and proof-of-vaccination rules have already been dropped in most spaces and masks will no longer be required in many settings as of March 21.