‘More bullets’: Analysts mull whether Russia will move to Libya after Syria

Russia’s potential redeployment to Libya carries consequences for Moscow, Tripoli and beyond.

Russia’s future in Syria may be a matter of debate, and analysts broadly agree that the loss of Syria will mean little to Russia in material terms.

However, that the Kremlin wants to retain its strategic footprint across the Mediterranean and Africa – developed over the last decade – is widely acknowledged.

During the course of Syria’s war, Russia provided vital military and diplomatic support critical to maintaining the rule of Bashar al-Assad.

In the process, it established a key airfield at Khmeimim and greatly expanded its Soviet-era naval base at Tartous, Russia’s only warm-water port.

With Syria in the hands of an administration headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the future of those bases is unclear, and reports suggest Russia has already partially withdrawn its forces.