Modelling predicts Alberta could see 6,000 new COVID-19 cases daily within weeks

Cases of Omicron will rapidly escalate in Alberta in the coming weeks, with daily case counts of COVID-19 expected to surpass 6,000 by the end of the year, new modelling suggests.  

A new report from the B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group suggests that cases of Omicron will explode over the coming four weeks across Canada, stunting previous waves of the pandemic.

As a result, Alberta's hospitals could be pushed past the breaking point, said Dean Karlen, a University of Victoria physics professor and member of the independent modelling group.

"You reach 6,000 cases a day before the first of January and it doesn't stop," said Karlen.

The highest daily case count for COVID-19 in Alberta was 2,389, recorded on April 30 during the peak of the third wave.

The projections assume no change in social behaviour in the coming four weeks. The status-quo scenario "demonstrates it is essential to reduce transmission rates immediately," the report says. 

Karlen's models show hospital capacity could be overcome within four weeks, with thousands of COVID-19 patients seeking care. 

This "wall" of new infections will leave the province struggling to accurately track case counts, Karlen said.

"The growth is so rapid it almost looks like a vertical line," Karlen said. "This is the nature of rapid, exponential growth." 

The new modelling, published Tuesday before new restrictions were announced in Alberta, details the impact of an Omicron-driven fifth wave, and warns that a rapid rise in the new variant will pose a serious challenge to health care in jurisdictions across the country, even if the strain proves less severe than other coronavirus mutations. 

The modelling is not intended to provide conclusive, daily projections but rather a snapshot of how serious the situation may become, Karlen said.

"Even with these reductions in severity, hospital demands will soon exceed previous record highs, and will continue to rise into the new year," the report says. 

During a Tuesday news conference, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta's chief medical officer of health, said the province's own modelling is limited by a lack of information on the severity of the Omicron strain.

That said, Omicron's severity would have to be drastically reduced in order to avoid a "significant impact" on the acute care system, Hinshaw said.