Milton byelection matters for Doug Ford and Bonnie Crombie
CBC
For Premier Doug Ford, there's more at stake in Thursday's provincial byelection in Milton than just one seat at Queen's Park.
While a byelection win or loss won't change the status of any party in the majority-PC Legislature, the results in Milton will tell Ford, his opponents and all their political organizers plenty about the challenges they'll face in the run-up to the next provincial election campaign two years from now.
"Normally I would say that you can't read too much into byelections," said Andrew Perez, a Liberal strategist, in an interview. "In this case, I think this byelection in Milton is critical."
Andrew Brander, a Conservative strategist, says the vote comes at a critical time for the Ford government.
"The reason why I think [the byelection] matters is Milton is an exceptional microcosm of the GTA," said Brander, who managed three successful federal campaigns in the riding for former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt.
Here are five reasons why you should pay attention to what happens in Milton, even if you don't live there.
The path to power in Ontario leads through the 905, made up of the regions of Halton, Peel, York and Durham. For the last eight straight provincial elections, the party that won the most seats in this part of the Greater Toronto Area formed government.
The PC dominance of the 905 was one of the most notable features of the 2022 election. Ford's party captured 28 of its 29 ridings, with the NDP's win in Oshawa as the only exception.
Both politically and mathematically, it will be almost impossible for any party to defeat the PCs in the next election (scheduled for June 2026) without prying away a healthy chunk of these seats.
The results today in Milton could be seen as a sample of how 905 voters are feeling midway through Ford's second term as premier.
Polling suggests the Liberals are competitive in Milton and Perez says voter sentiment in neighbouring ridings is likely similar. "I think that's promising for our party," he said.
For the Official Opposition New Democrats, who have long struggled to win anywhere in the 905 outside of Brampton and Oshawa, the results will send a message to Marit Stiles's party about how much further it needs to go to have a realistic shot at forming government.
The byelection was forced by Ford's former minister of red tape reduction, Parm Gill, jumping ship to become the candidate for Pierre Poilievre's federal Conservative Party.
Milton has clearly been on Ford's mind of late. He held a news conference in the riding in mid-April to announce expanded GO Transit service. He held a news conference on Tuesday to re-announce a 2025 start date for construction of Highway 413, which would link Milton to Vaughan.
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