Manitoba heading toward 'severe' COVID-19 pandemic scenario, top doctor says
CBC
The trajectory of Manitoba's fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic puts it on a path to potentially see hundreds of new daily cases and dozens of patients in intensive care units by the end of the year.
Dr. Brent Roussin, chief provincial public health officer, said current trends in daily case numbers and hospitalizations are in line with the "severe" scenario set out in pandemic modelling released in August.
"Our fourth wave was more delayed than what early projections had shown, but we're certainly on the trajectory of the severe outcome, severe trajectory right now," Roussin said.
"We're in a trajectory right now that could take us to a place where we'll see quite a significant amount of strain on our health care system, unless we change it."
The province's modelling laid out three potential scenarios, labelled as controlled, severe and extreme.
Under the severe scenario, the model estimated Manitoba could see as many as 500 cases per day, and more than 100 COVID-19 patients in ICUs by mid-December. The normal, pre-pandemic ICU capacity for all patients in Manitoba is 72.
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