Lower electricity prices appear on the way for Albertans — no matter what reforms win out
CBC
There's been a lot of talk recently around ongoing reforms to Alberta's electricity market. Just this week, Alberta's minister of affordability and utilities, Nathan Neudorf, spoke about some of them during an event at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce
They include the province's moratorium on renewable energy, but also a provincial review into the electricity market and a look into the practice known as economic withholding.
Speaking to reporters after that event on Tuesday, Neudorf said it was likely that all of them would conclude before the end of February 2024.
The amount of thermal generation coming online was "creating the basis" for a prediction that prices are set to go down, according to Neudorf.
The province is also working with the City of Calgary on its local access fee, he said.
"So, we are looking at all of those things. I am very confident we will not only be able to stabilize [costs] but bring it down to historical prices of less than 10 cents a kilowatt hour, as well as the all-in cost to the ratepayer being at a much more affordable level," Neudorf said.
Albertans haven't been shy in expressing their frustration when it comes to how much their electricity bills have gone up this year. For those paying the fluctuating regulated rate option (RRO), prices peaked this summer at nearly 32 cents per kilowatt hour before gradually declining to end the year.
And though Neudorf and the provincial government are promising new initiatives to be put into practice after the various ongoing studies conclude, that 10 cents per kilowatt hour figure has long been on the radar for those who study electricity markets, such as Blake Shaffer, a University of Calgary economist.
"When I heard comments about, 'I'm confident we will be able to stabilize and bring down [prices] to 10 cents a kilowatt hour,' that is known. That is set to occur," Shaffer said.
That's because of forward prices, prices agreed to in advance for future electricity delivery.
Shaffer used an analogy here: it would be like knowing Halley's Comet is about to pass by Earth, then stepping outside, clapping your hands and saying, "Aha!" as it does so.
"As though you were somehow causal in somehow bringing that here.
"Power prices, starting in March, are going to be getting down into near the 10 cent level, and their forecasts are remaining that low for the next two to three years," Shaffer said.
"This isn't me doing forecasting, this is the forward markets."
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